What-if scenario planning
What-if scenario planning software for your next decision
Ask "what if I raise prices 3%?" and get a likely range from your own sales, costs and labor before you act.
Every result is recorded the same way as the rest of Esplanda. See how we measure results.
Illustrative example
In short
Esplanda's what-if scenario planning answers a business question before you spend on it: raise prices, add a person, stay open later, carry less, add delivery. Each answer is a range for sales, profit, labor and cash, with the drivers ranked.
It runs on the models Esplanda already keeps for your store, from your own past price changes, baskets, costs and demand forecast, and a scenario you accept becomes a plan you approve in one step. For what already happened, ask AI retail analytics in your own words.
- A range, not one number
- Drivers ranked
- Outside events to watch
- History check
- Tests sized to settle it
- Costed plan for approval
Ask it first
The questions owners put off for years
Each one comes back with a likely outcome, the band around it and the two or three factors doing most of the work.
What if I raise prices?
Measured on how your own customers reacted to your past price changes, category by category, and checked against nearby prices from competitor price tracking.
What if I add a person?
Labor cost against the sales your busy hours could gain, from your schedule and your hour-by-hour sales.
What if I stay open an extra hour?
The sales that hour is likely to bring against the staff and costs of keeping the doors open.
What if I carry less of a category?
What your customers buy instead, read from your own baskets, and the margin that substitute carries.
What if I add delivery?
New orders against commission, fees and the staff time each order takes, so the channel is judged on profit.
What if I run an offer?
The likely lift and the margin it costs, and whether a test could settle it before you commit the whole store.
Every answer
Five parts, on every scenario
The scenario runs a couple of thousand times with each input varied across its own uncertainty, and reports the spread. A thinly measured input gives a visibly wider band, so you see how firm the answer is.
| Part | What you get | Why it is there |
|---|---|---|
| The range | A likely outcome for sales, gross profit, operating profit, units, labor cost and cash, each with a band around it | Uncertainty in the inputs reaches the answer, where you can see it |
| The drivers | The factors doing the work, ranked by how much of the spread each one accounts for | A number you can question is a number you can act on |
| What to watch | A competitor's reaction, a new store opening, a supply problem, weather past the forecast window | Listed on every answer, above the fold on a phone |
| The history check | A clear flag and a wider band when you ask about something new to your store | A far bigger price move than any before it deserves a wider band |
| The hand-off | One button turns the scenario into a costed plan for your approval | A scenario more than a week old is run again first, because the business has moved |
Built from what Esplanda already runs for your store: price sensitivity from your own past price changes, substitution from your own baskets, costs and cash from your invoices and POS reporting, and the same demand forecasting software that drives reordering. Anonymized benchmarks from comparable stores are labeled as an outside input; see retail benchmarking.
Testing an idea
Tests sized to settle the question
Before a test runs, Esplanda does the arithmetic: how many customers each side needs to show a real difference. When your list is big enough, the test runs properly. When it is not, you see the numbers and better options.
How a test runs
- A fair split, each customer kept in the same group every time, plus a held-back group that gets neither version.
- Guardrails set before launch: a margin floor, an unsubscribe ceiling and a stop if one side is clearly doing harm.
- Safe to watch every day, with the corrected figure reported when a test stops early on a clear winner.
- Three options when a list is small: test something with a bigger effect, pool several weeks into one test, or make the change as a judgment call, recorded as one.
Fair to every customer
- One shelf price for everyone. Price tests separate by day or by location, and every customer in the store at the same time sees the same price.
- Compliance stays out of tests: age checks, allergen and license notices, and debt-related messages.
- You can stop any test at any time, and a guardrail breach stops it and reverses the change on its own.
Measuring the result
Four labels, each one earned
Every measured result carries one of four labels. The monthly total is the weighted sum, with the unweighted sum beside it, overlaps taken out so no dollar counts twice, and what Esplanda cost you subtracted. It is the sum of effects traced to specific actions, kept separate from your total profit change, because a business moves for many reasons.
| Label | What it requires | Weight in the monthly total |
|---|---|---|
| Caused | A fair randomized test that ran to a clean finish | Counts in full |
| Likely caused | A comparison against a held-back group or a matched set, with every check passing | Counts at four fifths |
| Associated | A comparison against what was forecast to happen otherwise | Counts at half |
| Unmeasured | Too little data, a clashing event or an effect too small to separate, with the reason stated | Counts as zero, listed by name |
A result that fails a check moves down a rung in plain view, with the reason beside it, and results keep the label they were measured with. The full method is on how we measure results, and every action waits inside the limits you set; read why Esplanda is safe to trust.
Questions
Scenario planning questions owners ask
What is what-if scenario planning software?
What-if scenario planning software models what would happen before you do it, such as raising prices, adding a shift, extending hours, cutting inventory or adding delivery. Esplanda builds the answer from the parts of your business it already models: demand, price sensitivity, what your customers buy instead, your costs and cash, and your labor.
Why does the answer come back as a range?
Every input carries some uncertainty, and a range carries it through to the answer where you can see it. A scenario returns a likely outcome with the band around it, and where the band includes losing money, it says so. The midpoint is a summary; the range is the answer.
Where do the numbers in a scenario come from?
From your own store: price sensitivity measured on your past price changes, substitution read from your baskets, costs and cash from your invoices and reports, labor from your schedule, and demand from the same forecast that drives reordering. Nearby published prices and anonymized benchmarks from comparable stores are labeled as outside inputs.
How does Esplanda decide whether to run a test?
It does the arithmetic first. From your list size, your baseline rate and the difference you want to detect, it works out the sample each group needs. When you have it, the test runs. When you don't, Esplanda shows the smallest difference your list can detect and offers three options: test something with a bigger expected effect, pool several sends into one longer test, or make the change as a judgment call.
When does Esplanda say an action caused a result?
When the outcome was measured by a fair randomized test that ran to a clean finish. A comparison against a held-back group or a matched set earns likely caused when its checks pass, and a comparison against the forecast is labeled associated. Each label carries its own weight in the monthly total.
Does Esplanda test different prices on different customers?
No. Price tests separate by day or by location, and every customer in the store during the same period sees the same shelf price. Age checks, allergen and license notices, and debt-related messages are kept out of testing altogether.
Can a scenario become a plan?
Yes. Accept a scenario and it becomes a plan: the price changes, orders and campaigns it needs, costed, checked against the limits you set and presented for one approval. A scenario more than a week old is run again before it becomes a plan, because the business has moved.
What does Esplanda cost?
Esplanda POS is free, with no setup fee and no contract, and each paid tool is priced on its own per location per month. Every current price is on the Esplanda pricing page.
Ask the question before you spend
Start free today, or book a demo and we'll run a what-if on a store like yours.
Esplanda POS and your website are free to start, with no card needed. Add paid tools only when you want them. See Esplanda pricing.
